France's illegal gambling market, figure by figure
For press and research
"Two billion euros" of illegal market, one headline says. "748 million", says the regulator's lower bound. We put the two studies side by side — the ANJ's measurement (2023) and the Barometer that updates it (2025), at the centre of the dispute between AFJEL and Casinos de France since November 2025 — with, for every figure, its source, its scope and its date. The "€2 billion" is the ceiling of the 2025 scenarios (€0.9 / 1.3 / 1.9bn), not a new measurement; and at-risk players generate about 80% of that GGR, in both studies. Most of the gaps are not disagreements: they are different ranges, years and scopes.
- Both studies, line by line — the ANJ's 2023 range and the 2025 scenarios in one table, with no manufactured average.
- The "overtaking" of the legal market, checked — true in estimated players, false in gross gaming revenue: 73% of legal online GGR, at the highest scenario.
- At-risk players' share of GGR, on both sides of the line — ≈ 80% of illegal GGR; 60% of legal online and account-based GGR under the ANJ's algorithm, which counts 600,000 probable excessive players where operators identify 90,000.
- The full dataset as a CSV — 46 sourced figures, free to reuse with citation, for your articles and your work.
The full figures for this study are attached to this page, as a free download.
Key takeaways
One measurement lineage, two different debates.
- Same method. The 2025 Barometer (AFJEL) updates, "at constant method" (à iso-méthode), the study PwC ran for the ANJ in 2023: these are not two independent measurements, but two waves of the same one.
- The "€2 billion" is a ceiling. The 2025 scenarios run from €0.9bn to €1.9bn; the ANJ's 2023 range ran from €0.748bn to €1.5bn. The two overlap between €0.9bn and €1.5bn.
- The overtaking is a players headline. 5.4 million estimated players against 3.5 million legal unique players in H1 2025. In GGR, the illegal high scenario (€1.9bn) equals 73% of legal online GGR (€2.617bn).
- The strongest agreement: at-risk players generate ≈ 80% of illegal GGR in both waves (2023 and 2025).
- On the legal side, the ANJ's algorithm counts more than 600,000 probable excessive players, behind 60% of online and account-based GGR; operators identify only 90,000 of them.
- 18+ — risk of financial loss and addiction: set your limits before you play.
Action line When you cite an illegal-market figure, cite its scope and its year as well: the full table is freely available below the article.
Where do the numbers everyone cites come from?
In December 2023, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), France's gambling regulator, published the first measurement of the French illegal online market, produced for it by PwC on a web panel of more than 11,000 people (measurement from January to March 2023). The result was a range — illegal gross gaming revenue (GGR) estimated between €748 million and €1.5 billion, or 5 to 11% of the overall gambling market; about 3 million players; 510 illegal sites identified.
In November 2025, AFJEL — the association of licensed online operators — published its Illegal Market Barometer. Its press release states it plainly: this is an update "at constant method" (actualisation à iso-méthode) of the 2023 PwC study, with the same definitions and the same data treatment, on a new quota panel of 5,000 people. The barometer estimates 5.4 million players and, for GGR, three scenarios: €0.9bn, €1.3bn and €1.9bn. It is the high scenario, rounded up, that became the headlines' "nearly €2 billion".
| ANJ / PwC — 2023 | AFJEL Barometer — 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Commissioned by | ANJ (the regulator) | AFJEL (the licensed online operators' association) |
| Method | PwC study, web panel of 11,000+ people | Constant-method update, quota panel of 5,000 people |
| Illegal GGR | Range: €0.748bn to €1.5bn | Scenarios: €0.9 / 1.3 / 1.9bn |
| Players on the illegal offer | ≈ 3 million | 5.4 million |
| Published | December 2023 | 4 November 2025 |
The direct consequence for anyone citing these figures: comparing the barometer with the ANJ study does not pit two rival measurements against each other, but two waves of a single method. The method itself — extrapolation from a declared panel — is arbitrated by neither publication.
What the two measurements agree on
- Concentration on at-risk players. In 2023, the ANJ attributed about 80% of the illegal offer's revenue to high-risk players. In 2025, the barometer attributes 79% of illegal GGR to players with an at-risk practice (PGSI/ICJE grid), who make up 62% of players — 3.3 million people. This is the most robust point of agreement between the two documents.
- The scale of the offer. 510 illegal sites identified in 2023; "more than 500" reachable in 2025, of which 280 (54%) lead with casino. Online casino — prohibited in France — is the illegal offer's first segment in both readings.
- The direction of travel. Even comparing the lower bounds (€0.748bn → €0.9bn), the measurement rises between 2023 and 2025. The disagreement is about magnitude, not direction.
- The volume of enforcement. 1,658 illegal URLs blocked cumulatively (an ANJ figure carried by the barometer): administrative blocking does not shrink the stock of reachable sites.
Where they diverge — and why
The divergences reduce to five mechanisms: a point chosen inside a range, a year, a scope, a unit, a construction. The table below goes through them one by one.
| Question | What circulates | What the documents say |
|---|---|---|
| How much illegal GGR? | "€2 billion" | The barometer's high scenario (€1.9bn), rounded. The same document publishes €0.9bn and €1.3bn; the ANJ's 2023 range (€0.748–1.5bn) and the 2025 scenarios overlap widely. |
| How much growth? | "+25%" | The barometer's calculation compares its 2025 high bound (1.9) with the ANJ's 2023 high bound (1.5): a consistent ceiling-to-ceiling comparison — which retains the top of both ranges. |
| How many players? | "5.4 million, +35%" | The +35% implies a 2023 base of 4.0 million inside the barometer's own series. The ANJ communicated ≈ 3 million in 2023. Neither document publishes the bridge between the two bases. |
| Has the illegal market overtaken the legal one? | "Yes" (AFJEL's release headline) | In estimated players against legal unique players for H1 2025 (3.5M); across 2025 the ANJ counts 4.2M legal uniques. In GGR, no: €1.9bn at most, against €2.617bn of legal online GGR — 73%. |
| How much does the State lose? | "€1.2 billion a year" | A construction: the high-scenario GGR multiplied by the online-betting levy rate (59.3%) gives €1,133M in the study's own table — €789M at the mid scenario. It is not measured revenue, but a tax equivalent on a market that, if legalised, would keep neither the same size nor the same structure. |
| What is the government's "€1.5 billion"? | "Illegal online casino is worth €1.5bn" | The same amount as the ANJ's high bound — but for online casino alone (government estimate, 2024). Three different scopes carry one number: the whole illegal online offer (ANJ ceiling), the barometer's 2023 base, casino only (government). |
| Do players know the sites are illegal? | "82% don't know" | In 2023, the ANJ study estimated that about one player in two was aware of the illicit character. The two waves use neither the same instrument nor the same wording: the two figures are not directly comparable — the study says 80%, its own press release 82%. |
| "€1 billion" for a single operator? | Cresus Casino, prosecuted in 2025 | Prosecutors (JUNALCO) put its turnover — stakes — above €1bn since 2021, not an annual GGR. Coverage regularly mixes stakes, turnover and GGR: three different units. |
The most visible dispute, in fact, is not about the GGR measurement. Casinos de France, which represents land-based casinos, rejects the constructed tax loss and the conclusion AFJEL draws from it — legalising online casino:
"The €1.2bn 'lost revenue' brandished by AFJEL does not exist. It is a deception…"
In other words: no camp disputes the estimated GGR; what is disputed is the fiscal product derived from it and the political use of the figure. The ANJ, in this debate, recalls that any opening of online casino would have to address addictive risk and player protection.
One market, four scopes. Pick a measurement: the bar sits on the scale of 2025 legal online GGR (€2.617bn = 100%).
The legal market opposite: the denominators
A percentage is only as good as its denominator. In 2023, the ANJ presented illegal GGR as 5 to 11% of the total gambling market (€12.9bn in the reference year). Set against legal online GGR alone, the 2025 high scenario equals 73%. Both sentences are true; they do not tell the same story.
| Benchmark | 2023 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total market GGR | €13,355M | €14.1bn |
| Online GGR (excl. lottery) | €2,315M | €2,617M |
| Unique online players | 3.6 million | 4.2 million |
| Active online player accounts | 5,096,000 | 6.1 million |
One last asymmetry, rarely flagged: legal-market players are counted by operators (data declared to the ANJ), while illegal-market players are estimated by panel extrapolation. Comparing 5.4 million estimated players with 3.5 million counted ones also compares two measuring instruments.
At-risk players: the share of GGR, on both sides of the line
This is the figure Les Enjeux identified as newly central: in its decisions of 28 January 2026 on operators' responsible-gambling plans, the ANJ requires every operator to maintain a dashboard showing the share of GGR generated by detected at-risk players. We compiled what is public about that share, on both sides of the legal line:
| Scope | Year | Population | Share of GGR | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illegal market | 2023 | High-risk players | ≈ 80% of illegal GGR | ANJ / PwC, panel |
| Illegal market | 2025 | At-risk practice (PGSI), 62% of players | 79% of illegal GGR | AFJEL Barometer, panel |
| Legal market | 2019 | Problem players (of which excessive: 20.7 points) | 38.3% of GGR | Observatoire des jeux, survey |
| Legal market, online and account-based | H2 2025 | Probable excessive players: 600,000+ (8.7% of account players) | 60% of GGR (€1.2bn) | ANJ, detection algorithm (23 indicators) |
| Each licensed operator, separately | 2026 | At-risk players detected by the operator | Not published | Required as a dashboard by the ANJ decisions of 28 Jan 2026 |
Two readings follow. First, the jump from 38.3% (2019) to 60% (2025) on the legal side is first a change of method — from a declarative survey to a behavioural algorithm applied to account data — before it is a change in behaviour: the ANJ itself presents the share as "rising steadily since 2023" at the algorithm's constant method. Second, the detection gap: operators identified 90,000 excessive players in 2025, where the regulator's algorithm counts more than 600,000, of whom about 300,000 are "manifestly excessive" — about one probable excessive player identified in seven.
"There is a real population of excessive players who account for too large a share of this industry's revenue (…) Operators cannot wash their hands of it."
On the illegal market, no detection exists by construction: the ≈ 80% of GGR coming from at-risk players meets no moderator, no limit, no self-exclusion there. It is that contrast — not the level of the figures alone — that makes comparing the two shares useful.
The demand side: what can be measured, what cannot
The illegal market has no declaring operators: its "demand" is approached only through the two studies' panels and through traffic proxies. In 2023, the ANJ estimated the illegal offer at about 15% of online gambling web traffic in France. In 2025, the barometer measures the arrival channels: 90% of the illegal offer's players were exposed to it through online advertising or influencer content, and 70% say they ran into a cybersecurity problem or fraud.
Our own cross-check, on another market, follows the opposite logic: for Morocco, we compile figures published by the monopoly and the regulator (Crash games in Morocco and Africa, in figures) rather than extrapolations. For France, we publish no search-demand series: we do not hold one, and a search volume would measure curiosity, not GGR. What French demand can support therefore rests on the two panels — and on their limits, which this page documents rather than masks.
References
How we built this reconciliation. We collected the public documents that carry France's illegal-market figures — the ANJ/PwC study of December 2023, the AFJEL Barometer of November 2025 (full study and press release), the 2024 government estimate, the ANJ's market reviews, the responsible-gambling decisions of 28 January 2026 and the presentation of the ANJ's algorithm in May 2026 — and recorded every figure with its value, its scope, its year and its source, without harmonising them.
Reading rules. Conflicting estimates are published as conflicting, never averaged. The only figures we add are ratios, computed from the published values and flagged as calculations in the dataset (section F): the high scenario against legal GGR, the overlap of the ranges, the detection rate, the implied player base. Units are distinguished throughout: stakes, turnover and GGR are not interchangeable.
Limits. Both illegal-market measurements rest on panel extrapolations (11,000+ people in 2023, 5,000 in 2025), not on operator data; their margins are not published on a homogeneous basis. The ANJ's December 2023 release was consulted through its full-text relays (European Gaming, Public Gaming); the barometer study is archived as a PDF in our source file. The per-operator share of at-risk players' GGR does not exist in any public source at the date of publication.
- ANJ — "L'ANJ publie les résultats de la première étude visant à évaluer le marché des jeux d'argent et de hasard illégaux en ligne en France", press release and PwC study, 6 December 2023 (anj.fr; text relayed by European Gaming and Public Gaming).
- AFJEL — Baromètre du marché illégal des jeux d'argent en ligne, full study, November 2025 (afjel.fr, PDF).
- AFJEL — "Le marché illégal des jeux en ligne a dépassé le marché régulé", press release, 4 November 2025 (afjel.fr, PDF).
- Astérès — "Réguler le marché illégal des casinos en ligne : un impact socio-économique positif", October 2024.
- ANJ / OFDT — gambling market data 2023–2024: total GGR €13,355M in 2023, online €2,315M (documentation-administrative.gouv.fr).
- ANJ — annual market review 2025: total GGR €14.1bn, competitive online €2,617M, 4.2M unique players, April 2026 (reported by GameBridge).
- ANJ — excessive-player detection algorithm: presentation to operators, 12 May 2026 (AFP dispatch).
- ANJ — decisions on licensed operators' responsible-gambling action plans, 28 January 2026; analysis: Les Enjeux, "Plans jeu responsable 2026 : l'ANJ durcit le cadre", 29 January 2026 (les-enjeux.com).
- Casinos de France — response to the AFJEL Barometer, statements by Grégory Rabuel, November 2025 (reported by Casino Guardian).
- Chicken Road Productions — "Crash games in Morocco and Africa 2026, in figures": MDJS public-data compilation, the cross-check method used here as a contrast.
Download the full dataset (CSV, 46 figures): marche-illegal-france-donnees.csv — every row carries the value, the scope, the year and the source. Free reuse with citation.
Source: Chicken Road Productions, France's illegal gambling market — the reconciled figures, 2026.
One lineage only: the Barometer updates the 2023 measurement; it does not remeasure it independently.
The full dataset
| Figure | Value | Scope | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illegal-offer GGR — lower bound | 748 €M (Web panel of more than 11,000 people) | Illegal online offer, France | 2023 (measured Jan–Mar 2023) | ANJ, PwC study, Dec 2023 |
| Illegal-offer GGR — upper bound | 1,500 €M (Published range: €748M to €1.5bn) | 2023 (measured Jan–Mar 2023) | ||
| Illegal offer's share of the overall gambling market | 5 to 11% | Total gambling market, estimated at €12.9bn | 2023 | ANJ, PwC study, Dec 2023 |
| Players who played on the illegal offer | ≈ 3,000,000 players (Figure communicated by the ANJ at publication) | France | 2023 | ANJ, PwC study, Dec 2023 |
| Illegal sites identified | 510 sites (More than half hosted under a Curaçao licence) | Illegal offer reachable from France | 2023 | ANJ, PwC study, Dec 2023 |
| Traffic concentration | 21 sites ≈ 60% of illegal traffic | Illegal online offer | 2023 | ANJ, PwC study, Dec 2023 |
| Illegal offer's share of online gambling web traffic | ≈ 15% | Online gambling, France | 2023 | ANJ, PwC study, Dec 2023 |
| Share of illegal-offer revenue from high-risk players | ≈ 80% | Illegal online offer | 2023 | ANJ, PwC study, Dec 2023 |
| Players aware the offer was illicit | ≈ 1 in 2 (Survey within the same study) | 2023 |
| Figure | Value | Scope | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players on the illegal market | 5,400,000 players (+35% vs 2023, +145% vs 2020; quota panel of 5,000 people) | Illegal online market, France | 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 (PwC, constant-method update of the ANJ 2023 study) |
| Unique players on the legal online market | 3,500,000 unique players (Basis of the 'overtaking' comparison) | Legal online market | H1 2025 | ANJ, as cited by the AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Illegal GGR — low scenario | 900 €M (Scenario table in the study (p. 21)) | Illegal online market, France | 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Illegal GGR — mid scenario | 1,300 €M (Scenario table in the study (p. 21)) | 2025 | ||
| Illegal GGR — high scenario | 1,900 €M (Headlined as 'nearly €2 billion' in the press release) | 2025 | ||
| 2023 illegal GGR retained as the comparison base | 1,500 €M (Equals the upper bound of the ANJ 2023 range) | 2023 | ||
| Headline GGR growth | +25% (Ceiling-to-ceiling comparison (1.5 → 1.9 €bn)) | Illegal online market | 2023 → 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Fiscal shortfall — high scenario | 1,133 €M per year (Headlined as '€1.2 billion'; construction disputed by Casinos de France (Nov 2025)) | Tax equivalent at the online-betting levy rate (59.3% of GGR, from 1 Jul 2025) | 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Fiscal shortfall recalled for 2023 (low / mid / high) | 423 / 605 / 870 (Scenario table in the study (p. 21)) | Same tax equivalent | 2023 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Social cost of addiction linked to the illegal market | up to 4,000 | France | 2024 | Astérès, 'Réguler le marché illégal des casinos en ligne', Oct 2024, cited by the AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Illegal players with an at-risk practice (PGSI grid) | 62% of players, i.e. 3.3 million | Illegal online market | 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Share of illegal GGR from at-risk players | 79% (Compare ≈ 80% in the ANJ 2023 measurement) | 2025 | ||
| Players unaware the sites are illegal | 80 to 82% (80% in the study, 82% in the press release) | 2025 | ||
| Players who arrived via advertising or influencer content | 90% | 2025 | ||
| Players who suffered cybersecurity problems or fraud | 70% (The top problem reported, ahead of financial fraud) | 2025 | ||
| Illegal sites reachable from France | more than 500, of which 280 (54%) 'casino-first' (Online casino is the illegal offer's first segment) | Illegal online offer | 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Illegal URLs blocked (cumulative) | 1,658 URLs (Administrative blocks ordered by the ANJ) | France | cumulative to 2025 | ANJ, as cited by the AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Illegal casino sites accepting cryptocurrencies | 175 sites | Illegal online casino offer | 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Sports bettors on the illegal offer | 1,300,000 players (Esports betting: 1,000,000 players) | Illegal online market | 2025 | AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Cresus Casino case (prosecuted operator) — turnover | more than 1,000 (Turnover, not GGR; about 1 million French players in monthly visits) | A single operator, 98%+ French clientele | since 2021 | Paris public prosecutor (JUNALCO), Oct 2025, carried by the AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Figure | Value | Scope | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illegal online casino market | up to 1,500 (The third circulating '€1.5 billion': casino-only scope) | Illegal online casino only | 2024 | French government, online-casino regulation debates (reported by GameBridge) |
| Figure | Value | Scope | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total market GGR | 13,355 €M | Whole legal market, France | 2023 | ANJ, market data (OFDT processing) |
| Online GGR (excl. lottery) | 2,315 €M | Online sports betting, poker, horse betting | 2023 | ANJ, market data (OFDT processing) |
| Unique online players | 3.6 million (Active player accounts: 5,096,000) | Legal online market | 2023 | ANJ, 2023 review |
| Total market GGR | 14,100 €M (+3% vs 2024) | Whole legal market, France | 2025 | ANJ, annual review, Apr 2026 |
| Competitive online GGR | 2,617 €M (18.5% of total GGR) | Online sports betting, poker, horse betting | 2025 | ANJ, annual review, Apr 2026 |
| Unique online players / active accounts | 4.2 million / 6.1 million | Legal online market | 2025 | ANJ, annual review, Apr 2026 |
| Figure | Value | Scope | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of GGR attributable to problem players | 38.3% (of which excessive players: 20.7%) (Survey-based estimate) | Legal market, France | 2019 | Observatoire des jeux, cited by the ANJ |
| Estimated at-risk players | 1.4 million, of whom ≈ 400,000 pathological | France, all gambling | 2020 | Observatoire des jeux |
| Probable excessive players (ANJ algorithm, 23 indicators) | more than 600,000, i.e. 8.7% of account players (Of whom ≈ 300,000 'manifestly excessive') | Online and account-based play, legal market | H2 2025 | ANJ, detection algorithm presented to operators on 12 May 2026 (AFP) |
| GGR generated by these players | 1,200, i.e. 60% of GGR (Share rising steadily since 2023, per the ANJ) | H2 2025 | ||
| Excessive players identified by operators themselves | 90,000 players (Detection gap: see section F) | Licensed online operators | 2025 | |
| At-risk players' share of GGR, per operator | not published (The ANJ requires this share in operators' dashboards; no per-operator value is published) | Each licensed operator | 2026 | ANJ, responsible-gambling plan decisions of 28 Jan 2026 |
| Figure | Value | Scope | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 illegal high scenario against 2025 legal online GGR | 73% (1,900 / 2,617) (In GGR, the illegal market has not overtaken the legal online market, even at the high scenario) | Illegal market (high scenario) vs legal online market | 2025 | Chicken Road Productions calculation, from ANJ and AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Overlap of the 2023 and 2025 GGR ranges | €0.9bn to €1.5bn (The 'growth' depends entirely on which points of the ranges are compared) | Illegal online market | 2023 / 2025 | Chicken Road Productions calculation, from ANJ and AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
| Operator detection rate (excessive players) | 15% (90,000 / 600,000) (Operators identify about one probable excessive player in seven) | Legal online and account-based market | 2025 | Chicken Road Productions calculation, from ANJ (May 2026) |
| 2023 player base implied by the 2025 Barometer | 4.0 million (5.4M ÷ 1.35) (Against ≈ 3 million communicated by the ANJ in 2023: neither document publishes the bridge between the two series) | Illegal online market | 2023 | Chicken Road Productions calculation, from AFJEL Barometer 2025 |
Our other statistics
- The real cost of low cashout — how far an early, repeated cashout erodes return, with the model, code and data (EN).
- Crash games in Morocco and Africa, in figures — the public-data compilation for the Moroccan market (EN).
- Crash game statistics 2026 — the full multiplier distribution and the waiting times (EN).
Frequently asked questions
What is the real size of France's illegal gambling market?
There is no single figure, and the documents do not claim otherwise: the ANJ published a range (€0.748bn to €1.5bn of GGR in 2023) and the 2025 Barometer three scenarios (€0.9 / 1.3 / 1.9bn). Any single value quoted without its scenario is a point chosen inside a range — usually the ceiling.
Where does the "€2 billion" figure come from?
From the AFJEL Barometer's high scenario (€1.9bn, 2025), rounded up in headlines. The same document publishes a mid scenario at €1.3bn and a low one at €0.9bn, and recalls that the 2023 reference measurement was itself a range.
Has the illegal market overtaken the legal online market?
In player numbers, per the barometer: 5.4 million estimated, against 3.5 million legal unique players in H1 2025 (4.2 million across the year). In gross gaming revenue, no: €1.9bn at the highest scenario, against €2.617bn recorded by the legal online market in 2025.
Where does the "€1.2 billion" tax loss come from?
From a calculation, not a measurement: apply the online-betting levy rate (59.3%) to the high-scenario GGR (€1.9bn) and you get the €1,133M shown in the barometer's table — €789M at the mid scenario. Casinos de France disputes that construction; no camp disputes the GGR estimate itself.
Is at-risk players' share of GGR published, operator by operator?
No. The ANJ has required that share in operators' dashboards since its decisions of 28 January 2026, but no per-operator value is public. The values compiled here are aggregates: ≈ 80% of illegal GGR (both studies) and 60% of legal online and account-based GGR (ANJ algorithm, H2 2025).